Winnemucca, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

141
FXUS65 KLKN 191956
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1256 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures in the 90s today create HeatRisk, cooling into the
  80s Saturday

* Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and
  light precipitation through Saturday

* Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected early next
  week with highs back in the 90s for all locations


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Hot afternoon temperatures in the 90s
Friday afternoon will be tempered over the weekend thanks to an
upper level system that will drag a weak cold front through the
state this evening. The system is also creating shower and
thunderstorms chances across central and northern NV this evening,
as evidenced by satellite and radar imagery this afternoon. Better
coverage of showers and storms is possible north of I-80 tonight.
Rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch are possible across
northern NV locations this evening as dry thunderstorms transition
to more wet than dry Friday evening.

On Saturday the threat of storms still exists for northern NV
where an unusual setup has resulted in a Fire Weather Watch for
Elko County on Saturday. While moisture availability is strong
(0.5 up to 0.8 inches by Saturday afternoon) and LCL levels are
favorable for wetting rains, westerly storm motions of 20-25KTs
along the northern border mitigate the effects of precipitation.
This creates fire weather conditions even in the presence of
rainfall. The strong winds are a result of an efficient pressure
gradient in the axis of the system traversing the northern half of
the state. The system and its forcing push eastward by Saturday
night drying the area out.

Zonal flow sets up over the Great Basin on Sunday and into early
next week before an HPC over northern Mexico builds into the area
from the south. The strengthening ridge will return warmer
temperatures of 10-15 degrees above normal to the area by mid
week. This will increase HeatRisk Tuesday and Wednesday and
threaten several area climate records for high temperature.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for
hot afternoon high temperatures for Friday. Moderate confidence
exists in thunderstorms across northern NV through Saturday
afternoon. NBM continues to perform poorly accurately depicting
DryT in Wx grids so a variety of edits were performed (ModelBlend,
SST, SerpISC) to fix hourly and 3-hourly grids in the short term
through Saturday afternoon. Building confidence continues for a
drier, warmer period of weather into middle of next week.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through Saturday
afternoon. Southerly wind gusts for KTPH and KELY through Friday
evening will range 30-33KTs. VCTS is forecast for terminals KWMC,
KEKO, KELY, and KBAM through late Friday evening. Winds in and
around TS activity will be gusty and erratic. VCTS is forecast for
KEKO, KELY, and KENV beginning Saturday morning and lasting
through the afternoon. Wind gusts on Saturday ranging 22-25KTs are
forecast for KEKO and KENV terminals.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions continue for all fire weather zones through
Friday evening. A hot dry windy threat exists for fire weather
zones 425/426/427 through 11PM this evening. A dry thunder threat
exists for fire weather zones 424/437/438/469/470 for the same
time Friday evening. On Saturday a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Elko County fire weather zones 438/469/470 for dry
thunderstorm conditions. While the setup for thunderstorms is
sufficiently wet with favorable moisture and lower cloud bases,
the fast moving nature of storms that do occur will mitigate the
effects of precipitation on any lightning causing ignitions. The
Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 9AM to 5PM PDT on Saturday.
The threat of storms exits the region after Saturday beginning
calmer, warmer weather by next week.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99